Beef Market Outlook 2022-2030: Consumption, Prices, and - GlobeNewswire Among the four different types of livestock featured here, mutton and lamb will see the second largest percentage increase in per capita consumption between 2014 and 2024. Partial substitution of carbohydrate intake with protein intake from lean red meat lowers blood pressure in hypertensive persons. Alaejos MS, Gonzalez V, Afonso AM. Reedy J, Krebs-Smith SM. So welfare concerns are more likely to lead to an absolute abandonment of meat, while health or environment could lead simply to a reduction in meat consumption. 2003 Jul 5;147(27):1308-13. Summary The world now produces more than three times the quantity of meat as it did fifty years ago. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Ann Nutr Metab. The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the downstream CPIs. These products are suggesting its the same thing with different ingredients. B) Percentage of total meat that is processed. Early ecologic comparisons provided the first indication that high meat consumption correlated with higher rates of chronic disease(8, 9), including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, the current leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the U.S. and other westernized countries(10). Red meat, possibly due to its fat and iron content, may increase inflammation and oxidative stress, but less is known regarding lean and white meats(45, 50). Disclaimer. Twenty-two percent of the meat consumed in the U.S. is processed. Cross AJ, Pollock JR, Bingham SA. Despite a shift toward higher poultry consumption, red meat still represents the largest proportion of meat consumed in the U.S (58%). Eur J Nutr. A price decrease is expected for pork, though its measure of uncertainty does not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices in 2023. The type and quantities of meat reported varied by education, race, age, and gender. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Hyattsville, MD: MyPyramid Equivalents Database for USDA Survey Food Codes, 19942002. Individual-level intake data, such as that collected in NHANES from individual sample respondents, measure only edible and reportedly consumed foods from a designated period or point in time. Norat T, Lukanova A, Ferrari P, et al. Our review of the 6 studies found the following trends: 1) a very low meat intake was associated with a significant decrease in risk of death in 4 studies, a nonsignificant decrease in risk of death in the fifth study, and virtually no association in the sixth study; 2) 2 of the studies in which a low meat intake significantly decreased mortality risk also indicated that a longer duration (>/= 2 decades) of adherence to this diet contributed to a significant decrease in mortality risk and a significant 3.6-y (95% CI: 1.4, 5.8 y) increase in life expectancy; and 3) the protective effect of a very low meat intake seems to attenuate after the ninth decade. Meat consumption has been increasing since the 1960s, but especially from the 1980s decade to today. 2011 Apr; 14(4): 575583. and transmitted securely. Product developers and policy-makers need to understand the reasons for that change. Intake of fat and meat, primarily from red meat, has been of public health concern since the late 1950s when the American Heart Association first recommended that dietary cholesterol, saturated fat, and total fat be reduced for the prevention of CVD(12, 14); and to date, numerous epidemiologic studies have investigated meat intake and cancer risk(1517). It's not. Egg prices are predicted to increase 6.2 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of -1.7 to 15.6 percent. Impossible Foods CEO Pat Brown is seen in this August 2018 photo. Heterocyclic amine content in beef cooked by different methods to varying degrees of doneness and gravy made from meat drippings. With urbanization there is some evidence to show that refined carbohydrate consumption is increasing, whereas consumption of traditional grains (i.e. Lee JE, Spiegelman D, Hunter DJ, et al. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. The latest USDA forecast indicates that in 2022, U.S. consumers will have access to 224.6 pounds of red meat and poultry on a per capita retail weight basis. The same data adjusted for loss, but only available from 1970, is comparable to the trends shown in Figure 2 with a marked increase in poultry consumption, a slight decrease in red meat consumption, and an overall trend for increasing meat consumption. As a library, NLM provides access to scientific literature. Derrell Peel | Apr 04, 2022 Declining beef and pork production may offset increased broiler production and lead to a decrease in total meat production in 2022. Is Meat Consumption in the US Increasing or Declining? - The Humane League 2023 Apr;62(3):1109-1121. doi: 10.1007/s00394-023-03086-z. Its tempting to attribute the decrease in meat consumption to a rise in vegetarianism and veganism, but not all vegans are the same, and overall they play a relatively small role in consumption changes. A lock ( Larsson SC, Wolk A. 2022 Feb 22;15:1833-1851. doi: 10.2147/IJGM.S333004. Cancer incidence in vegetarians: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Oxford). We additionally examined meat intake stratified by gender, age (211 years, 1219 years, 2049 years, 5069 years, and greater than 70 years), ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Mexican-American/Other Hispanic, Other), and education (less than high school, high school, greater than high school). FOIA Identifying barriers to decreasing meat consumption and increasing Additionally, most prospective cohorts in the U.S. and Europe began in the mid 1980s to 1990s, serving as the baseline level of intake, which USDA and NHANES data suggest may be considerably lower than current U.S. intake. Unable to load your collection due to an error, Unable to load your delegates due to an error. And so, again, its unlikely vegetarians and vegans are driving the changes in meat consumption. To look at U.S. meat consumption components and trends in more detail, we referenced food availability data (also known as U.S. Food Supply Data or Disappearance Data) from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and accessible at http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Foodconsumption(25). Sinha R, Norat T. Meat cooking and cancer risk. ), and developed world as a whole has increased relatively steadily over the period from 1961 to 2003 (Figure 1). An official website of the United States government. Exposure to NOCs occurs from both endogenous formation, which is directly related to red meat intake(56), as well as exogenous exposure from nitrite-preserved meats(57). Younger age groups and minority populations sampled in NHANES are often under-represented in most large epidemiologic and U.S. prospective studies. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Foodconsumption, http://www.fao.org/es/ess/chartroom/fbs.asp, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/, http://www.fao.org/statistics/pdf/statistics_in_fao.pdf, National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Despite a shift toward increased poultry consumption, red meat still represents the largest proportion of meat consumed in the U.S. and nearly a quarter of the meat consumed is processed. Meat intake varies widely throughout the world. USDA ERS - Summary Findings The FAO classifies total meat (excluding fish) as the sum of beef, poultry, pork, sheep, goat and other game. Chao A, Thun MJ, Connell CJ, et al. In 2021, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 4.5 percent. Yet there is significant focus right now on plant-based burgers and other products that mimic the mouth feel, flavour and overall experience of beef not for vegans, obviously, but for meat-eaters choosing to reduce their consumption. We used publicly accessible per capita food availability data provided by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations(24) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)(25) to compare temporal trends in meat consumption in the U.S. and other developed countries (defined by FAO as Japan in Asia, Canada and the U.S. in North America, Australia and New Zealand in Oceania, and all of Europe). The methodology for measuring food availability has remained relatively consistent over time and comparing USDA and FAO data with dietary assessment data from NHANES is a useful way to corroborate actual meat consumption patterns and trends(33). Science 20 Jul 2018 Vol 361, Issue 6399 DOI: 10.1126/science.aam5324 The future of meat Meat consumption is rising annually as human populations grow and affluence increases. For example, the consumption of both chicken and eggs is actually rising. Where's the fat? The latest forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center suggest that total red meat and poultry production will total 106.25 billion pounds, down slightly year over year. Meat can be further classified as red meat or white meat by the quantity of red versus white muscle fibers, and fresh or processed by preparation methods such as smoking, curing, salting, and/or addition of preservatives. Another indication of the motivation for meat minimization is the battle for words like meat and milk. The CPI for all food increased 0.2 percent from April 2023 to May 2023, and food prices were 6.7 percent higher than in May 2022. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. Epub 2008 Mar 18. The affordability of meat in the U.S., combined with rising consumer incomes, may explain this trend. Across the 19992000, 20012002, 20032004 surveys, red meat intake appeared to decrease slightly, while poultry intake appeared to increase slightly (data not shown), which is in agreement with the data from the USDA (Figure 2). It is the main reason why meat consumption is projected to grow by 30% in Africa, 18% in the Asia and Pacific region, and 12% in the Latin American region; the projected increase in meat consumption is 0.4% in Europe and 9% in North America. Farm-level cattle prices decreased 2.6 percent in May 2023 but were 22.3 percent higher than May 2022 due to tightening cattle supplies. About 1 in 4 American respondents told Gallup researchers that they have been eating less meat in the past 12 months. A recent survey at the University of Guelph was consistent with this estimate. In contrast, fish consumption has remained low and stable over the past century. Public health implications of meat production and consumption. The remaining study, the Health Food Shoppers Study , reported no strong association for a "vegetarian" status variable that did not specifically measure meat intake . Front Nutr. A Prospective Study of Red and Processed Meat Intake in Relation to Cancer Risk. . How Can Meat Consumption Be Both Increasing and Decreasing? Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics all reported similar intakes of red meat. Incidentally, eggs were once vilified in the early 1980s due to health concerns about dietary cholesterol. For more information, contact: Fraser GE. Studies in Canada suggest that approximately five to seven per cent of Canadians identify as vegetarian, and another three to four per cent as vegan. Fruit and vegetable consumption in the prevention of cancer: an update. Macromolecular adduct formation and metabolism of heterocyclic amines in humans and rodents at low doses. The midpoints of the prediction intervals (representing the expected price change in 2023) of 10 PPI categories are negative and 3 are positive. We thank Jill Reedy for her contributions to this manuscript. To date, findings for other major cancers such as prostate, breast, lung, kidney, and pancreatic cancer are less consistent and prospective data for rarer cancers are particularly sparse(6772). While NOCs are also present in non-meat sources, such as vegetables and fruits(58), red meat is a key source of readily available heme iron, which may increase endogenous NOC formation(59). Meat intake in the U.S. according to demographic factors, NHANES, 20032004. Price increases exceeded 10 percent between May 2022 and May 2023 for fats and oils, sugars and sweets, and cereals and bakery products. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.0 to 7.1 percent. These methods provide wider initial prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Over the entire period, meat consumption averaged 252 pounds per person. Prices in May 2023 were lower than prices in 2021 prior to the HPAI outbreak in wholesale egg markets. National Research Council. PMC Meat consumption and colorectal cancer risk: Dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies. These farm- and wholesale-level prices give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain. From 1961 to 2003, total meat consumption continued to increase in all regions: nearly doubling in the E.U. Food Navigator, 2014 German meat consumption down "Meat consumption in Germany is declining steadily, and that's true of last year as well, when statistically every German citizen ate only 59.6 kilos of meat, which is 1.4 kilos less than the year before" Organic Market Info, 2013 Is Meat Consumption Increasing or Decreasing? According to international FAO data, total meat consumption (excluding fish) in the U.S., European Union (E.U. Parallel to this is the reported 65 percent of women whohave beeneating about the same amount of meat in the past 12 months. Sinha R, Rothman N, Salmon CP, et al. proportion of vegans and vegetarians in the United States, How restaurants are wooing 'flexitarians', Professor in Engineering (Electronic Engineering, Semiconductors), Executive Director, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), Research Officer - Structural Biology of E3 Ubiquitin Ligases, Director Evaluation and Impact Measurement. Year-over-year price growth slowed across most food-at-home categories, and prices declined for four food-at-home categories between April and May 2023. Hodgson JM, Burke V, Beilin LJ, et al. A comparison of food-based recommendations and nutrient values of three food guides: USDA's MyPyramid, NHLBI's Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Eating Plan, and Harvard's Healthy Eating Pyramid. 2008;52(2):96-104. doi: 10.1159/000121365. Could you tell the difference between this plant-based egg and a Meet the sailing robots trying to solve climate change, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods. Chapter 2: Profiling Food Consumption in America. Meat intake reported in the 24-hour dietary recall is converted to the equivalent number of cup or ounce-equivalents (servings) after disaggregating mixtures and discretionary fats. Prices for farm-level wheat declined 3.3 percent in May 2023 and were 31.6 percent below May 2022, a period of historically high prices. Farm-level soybean prices fell 4.4 percent in May 2023 and were 11.0 percent lower than May 2022. A Systematic Review of the Evidence Supporting a Causal Link Between Dietary Factors and Coronary Heart Disease. And in Argentina, home to one of the world . Food-at-home prices were 5.8 percent higher in May 2023 compared to May 2022, the lowest year-over-year increase since October 2021. The recent outbreak of HPAI reduced the U.S. egg-layer flock, as well as the poultry flock to a lesser extent. millet, maize) is decreasing in LMIC (61,62). This tracks with, that says voters, especially younger ones, are increasingly concerned with climate change, Post-July 4 travel expected to be smoother as people return home. For more information, please visit Website https://www.indexbox.io Trends in meat consumption in the United States - PMC None of the authors had a financial or personal conflict of interest. Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. Would you like email updates of new search results? Meat is here to stay.. At 1.9 kilograms (4.2 pounds) per capita consumption in 2024, mutton and lamb will still only constitute a small percentage of the global meat diet. Unauthorized use of these marks is strictly prohibited. To generate a total red meat variable we included red meat (beef, pork, veal, lamb, game) from meat, as well as the appropriate components of processed meat and organ meats, based on the recipe files for each of the food items in these food categories. Men outpace women in this category: 79 percent report their meat consumption is unchanged. Given the plausible epidemiologic evidence for red and processed meat intake in cancer and chronic disease risk, understanding the trends and determinants of meat consumption in the U.S., where meat is consumed at more than three times the global average, should be particularly pertinent to researchers and other public health professionals aimin.